In the wake of the 2024 election, many have begun to wonder what this returning administration could mean for the land real estate and agricultural industries in the United States over the coming years. Historically, the land industry hasn’t seen massive shifts in the marketplace as a result of changing political administrations. On the whole, many anticipate real estate transactions to proceed as normal following Donald Trump’s inauguration in January.

That being said, some of the Trump administration’s proposed policies could have some significant implications for farmland owners, ag producers, and the real estate industry. In a recent episode of the National Land Podcast, Chief Economist for Farmer Mac Jackson Takach also spoke about some of the things we may see in land values and the land industry in 2025.

Here’s a look at what this new administration could do for the land industry over the next four years and some of the things that landowners should be aware of as we move into 2025!

How Proposed Policies Could Impact the Land Industry

Throughout the 2024 election season, the Trump administration campaigned on a few key points to sway voters: controlling inflation, improving commodity prices for US producers via international tariffs, and curbing illegal immigration.

Interest Rates and Inflation

Following a prolonged period of increases, interest rates in the US have finally started to come back down in 2024. Historically, rates are increased to bring inflation down. In the wake of COVID-19, we saw significant rate increases to slow spending and stop rampant inflation growth. The Fed’s slow approach to reducing rates is indicative of their commitment to keep inflation in check, even if that means it takes longer for rates to come back down to the levels seen throughout the early 2000s.

While transactions in the land industry are often more cash-based than those in the residential sector, interest rates are still a good indicator of general consumer affordability and tend to signal whether buyers are going to be more or less willing to make their purchases. There’s been no indication from the Trump administration that this approach to interest rates and inflation will change in the immediate future.

As long as rates and inflation continue trending downward, we can expect to see more buyers in the market willing to pull the trigger on land purchases over the next few years.

International Tariffs

Wide-sweeping tariffs have been central to the Trump administration’s messaging this year. Tariffs are designed to pull industry back to the United States; they aren’t meant to stop our farmers from exporting their crops. Tariffs imposed by the US shouldn’t have impacts on our US ag farmers’ ability to sell their crops domestically.

The main concern with international tariffs is the threat of retaliatory tariffs enacted on our exports by other countries. Soy is one of the United States’ largest exports, with China being the largest buyer. Should China choose to impose similar retaliatory tariffs as those seen in 2018, or decide to stop buying US soy altogether, that commodity price could be negatively impacted. 

That being said, these kinds of tariffs could also create opportunities for ag producers to explore new markets or allow other export crops like corn to find new success.

As we look to the four years ahead, there remains a cautious optimism in the land and agricultural industries. While many don’t forecast any seismic shifts in these markets, it’s important to keep an eye on factors like interest rates and international trade policies which could impact land values and consumer behaviors moving forward.

If you’ve got questions about market conditions or what may be on the horizon for your market, get in touch with your local Land Professional today!