Moving into the second half of the year, 2024 is proving to be a year of relative stability in the land market, especially compared to the highs and lows of the past four years. In the wake of rapid appreciation observed in recent years, many experts predicted that 2024 would see a plateau of land values and so far this year, that’s exactly what we’ve observed in the market.

To share his thoughts on current market conditions, factors that may impact the market in the coming months and years, and what the second half of 2024 may hold for the land real estate industry, Chief Economist for Farmer Mac Jackson Takach appeared on a recent episode of the National Land Podcast.

Here’s what to know about land values in 2024!

Land Values Plateau and Hold Strong in 2024

While land values in 2024 aren’t on a high-velocity upswing as they were in 2021 and 2022, they aren’t depreciating too much either. High interest rates and low inventory across the country have helped to maintain land values at their current levels, and this is unlikely to change much later in the year.

While many markets and parts of the country are experiencing low listing inventory, the properties that are selling are doing so at a higher price point due to increased competition among buyers. 

Barring any kind of massive societal upheaval such as that seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, these conditions are likely to continue throughout the end of the year, making it a good time for anyone considering selling their property to do so as high land values and increased competition among buyers creates an environment where landowners could net more for their property now than they may be able to in years to come.

Generational Real Estate Transfer on the Horizon

One factor looming in the real estate market that will spur a massive number of real estate transactions over the next few years is the rising age of landowners in the U.S., especially in farmland. There’s an incredible amount of real estate set to change hands as these older landowners age out of being able to work their properties and inheritors are left to decide whether or not they want to work the property themselves or sell their properties.

Takach spoke to this factor and the implications it could have for the real estate market, stating the following:

“The percentage of farmers over the age of 75 is continuing to increase and we saw a drop in the age range between 45 and 55 in the most recent census. So we’re seeing the baby boomer generation move through the farms and increase in age.” 

“We’re seeing land move into entities that will survive and have tax implications. That tells me that people are thinking forward and trying to structure their debt. A lot of people have 30-year mortgages, and for some people, that debt might extend beyond the life expectancy of the debt holder. So they’re starting to think through what that means, how they can protect that asset and future business owners.”

Many of these farmland owners are transitioning out of active farming and more into an ownership role, looking to leasing or finding other people or entities to work their land. Similarly, 1031 exchanges and Delaware Statutory Trusts are becoming increasingly popular options for these landowners looking to make the most of their land investments.

Learn more about this generational transfer here!

Inflation, Interest Rates, and Other Market Factors

Some of the biggest factors driving and determining land values in 2024 are inflation and interest rates. 2023 saw repeated hikes to interest rates in an effort to combat rising inflation in the U.S. Now in 2024, while inflation has slowed, prices remain high and continue to strain the average American’s wallet.

Speaking about the continued impact of inflation on the U.S. economy, Takach stated, “In 2024, talking with friends and family across the country, everyone’s still uncomfortable with how prices are. Prices may not be going up, but they’re still too high, right?”

“Today, we’re in a 3-4% inflationary world. The Federal Reserve and other central bankers think we need to be closer to 2%. That’s a stable level that we can handle, that’s a sustainable level. Things are still high, like housing. Housing represents 40% of our collective spend, so when housing costs more, we all feel it. It can really push the overall measures of inflation up. If you take out housing and just look at everyday spend inclusive of food, inclusive of energy, we’re hovering right around that 2-2.5% range. It’s the housing piece that’s really putting a lot more pressure on us.”

Supply Chain Pressures Ease

While the costs of many goods remain high in 2024, the price of many inputs, especially in the agricultural sector, have begun to decline compared to recent years. This is largely due to supply chain disruptions brought on by COVID and other global conflicts finally beginning to cool.

During COVID, a combination of increased demand for goods and international supply chain shortages and delays created a spike in inflation that’s still being felt today. As consumers continued to spend over the past four years, these inflated prices were maintained by ongoing demand. Prices for agricultural inputs like energy costs, fertilizers, and fuel skyrocketed in 2022 and are only now beginning to come back down. The stabilization of farmland values in 2024 can be attributed in part to these inputs becoming more accessible and affordable.

Inflation Predictions for Second Half of 2024

The question on the minds of many is what may be in store for the economy and the land real estate market in the latter half of 2024. Many experts are anticipating land values to remain stable throughout the end of the year, seeing little significant appreciation or depreciation.

In terms of where inflation may go, Takach asserted that residential real estate movement is likely going to be one of the largest driving factors in bringing inflation down. He stated the following:  

“At some point, someone’s going to start selling their houses, you can’t just sit tight forever. It’s a 3% mortgage rate, so once that levee breaks, that’s when I think you’re gonna see the inflation come back down under 3%. Could it be in the next 6-12 months? Absolutely, it could take longer than that too though depending on the strength of the overall economy in the next 12 months.

I don’t think we’re going up, I’m pretty bullish in that respect. I think there’s probably more downward pressure on inflation than upward but it may take a little while to crack the psychological hold on the cost of housing.”

Reach out to your local Land Professional today if you want to learn more about land values in your area or what your local market may look like for the rest of the year!