The first quarter of 2025 has brought a shift in the U.S. farmland market, one that reflects diverging economic realities across regions, crops, and livestock operations. According to a recent interview with Farmer Mac’s Chief Economist, Jackson Takach, the red-hot land market of recent years is cooling, but not collapsing.

Here’s a closer look at how farmland values are moving, why they’re diverging, and what it means for landowners, investors, and agricultural professionals.

Farmland Values Beginning to Level Out

After the significant appreciation seen following COVID-19, values for many types of land around the country are starting to cool off. Takach argues, though, that this slowing of the market is not indicative of a significant downturn on the horizon, but rather a regional recalibration that’s bringing land values in line with current market demand and conditions.

Location and land use are two of the biggest factors influencing land values in the United States. For example, Midwest cropland values have experienced significant downward pressures this year, but are still holding relatively well. As commodity prices have declined and input prices have increased, land for corn, soybeans, and wheat has seen lower demand, resulting in lower prices compared to recent years.

Ranchland Values in 2025 Are Up

Conversely, values in cattle country, particularly across parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas, have continued to rise. Strong beef demand and lower feed costs have created healthy margins for ranchers, and many are reinvesting those profits into additional acreage.

This trend is also reflected in auction activity, as existing producers with cash to spare often dominate the bidding for available agricultural land. With cattle prices holding strong and input prices down from last year, cattle producers in these areas are enjoying a window of profitability and putting that capital to work.

What to Expect Later in the Year

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, Takach did not forecast any dramatic changes on the horizon in terms of inflation or interest rates. Speaking to potential rate changes, Takach stated, “I don’t anticipate any huge moves. I wouldn’t anticipate 200 basis points up, and definitely don’t expect 200 points down but watch for some chop along the way. The 10-year treasury is the thing that really impacts those long-term rates, so if you’re thinking about purchasing land or refinancing, watch for a good day where the US treasuries take a dip, and that’s your shot. I always tell people, when you see a good rate drop, don’t think it’s going to keep dropping.”

For landowners and investors alike, 2025 may be the year to move with precision rather than urgency. Land values aren’t declining en masse, but they are becoming more localized, commodity-sensitive, and opportunity-driven. In this shifting environment, staying informed is more critical than ever.

If you’ve got questions about the state of the ag land market in 2025, get in touch with your local Land Professional today!