With harvest in full swing around the country, many American farmers are concerned about current crop values and how international trade negotiations may be impacting their bottom lines. 

During a recent episode of the National Land Podcast, Dr. Gary Schnitkey with the University of Illinois summed up where we are: “Right now… cash prices for corn and soybeans, they’re below $4 for corn and below $10 for soybeans… the tariffs are… not good” for both inputs and exports, especially soybeans to China, which has yet to make a purchase this season.

Let’s take a look at some of the factors influencing crop prices in 2025.

What Changed?

One of the major factors this year is international trade disagreements, specifically between the United States and China. When trade partners retaliate against policies like tariffs, the sectors that produce exports like corn and soybean production, as well as livestock, take the hit. The result is a return to “$4 corn and $10 soybeans,” a level that won’t allow many farmers to reach their break-even point.

Tariffs don’t just add fees; they reroute trade and add friction. Even if the U.S. finds alternate buyers, according to Schnitkey, “the original distribution of sales worked… and it’s going to cost more to redistribute… than… without tariffs.” Schnitkey argues that tariffs overall harm exporters, and products like corn and soy get hurt in the process.

Other Nations Filling the Gap

As a result of the United States’ trade policies, other countries are stepping in to meet international demand. According to Schnitkey, “Our major competitor in soybeans is Brazil, and Brazil now produces more soybeans than the United States… the tariff situation makes Brazil look more attractive to buy from,” accelerating growth there and creating a long-term overhang on U.S. prices. Schnitkey goes on to state that even if the trade war ended “today,” it wouldn’t erase the “seeds of doubt”; Brazil would have grown anyway, but “we’ve sped it up considerably.”

Schnitkey’s team figures break-even at roughly $4.50 corn and $11–$11.50 soybeans, so with current prices near $4 and $10, we’re below those breakeven levels and there’s no quick cost relief in sight. What’s bridging the gap is government support: for the 2024 crop, an aid package served as a stopgap measure to keep farmers from bankruptcy. Many are hopeful that a new aid package could provide relief for this year’s farmers, but the ongoing government shutdown certainly creates concerns. 

What Landowners and Operators Can Do Now

With margins thin, start by tightening the cost stack. Scrutinize inputs with the highest ROI sensitivity and revisit machinery economics; keep in mind that new-equipment costs remain higher than in 2021–23. On rents and land values, temper expectations for sharp moves. As long as federal payments are sizable, adjustments are likely to be sideways rather than dramatic.

Under tariffs, the Midwest is selling into a world that’s both less eager to buy U.S. soy and more able to supply itself. That’s why many, including Schnitkey, believe these values aren’t a one-week blip, but rather the result of reshuffled trade routes, sticky costs, and a stronger competitor.

If you have questions about how today’s crop values could affect your land investment, get in touch with your local Land Professional today!