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The National Land Podcast

Tariffs, Shutdowns & Soybeans: How Policy Is Hitting Farmland Now

National Land Realty
October 6, 2025

Policy is slamming the countryside. Chris Clayton (DTN/Progressive Farmer) explains how tariffs, China’s pivot to Brazilian soybeans, and a USDA shutdown are colliding with harvest to pressure basis, storage, and cash flow—and to derail rural land sales. We dig into why China (historically 25–33% of U.S. soybean demand) is buying from Brazil (COFCO/ports, crush), how that drives basis widening and elevator capacity issues, and what could actually move the needle: biofuels (biodiesel/renewable diesel, ethanol, SAF). We also lay out shutdown fallout—FSA farm ownership/operating loans stalled, CRP payments paused, NRCS (EQIP/CSP) frozen—plus the limited upside from CCC/ECAP‑style aid. If you buy/sell rural land or advise landowners, this is the unvarnished read on farmland values, buyer pools, and the next 3–6 months.

Why It Matters

  • Deals slip/die: FSA loans are stopped, shrinking the buyer pool just as post‑harvest listings hit.
  • Cash crunch: Basis widening + storage pressure at harvest reduce liquidity for down payments and improvements.
  • Programs on ice: CRP checks delayed; NRCS projects paused—affecting valuations and conservation‑driven marketing.
  • Demand hinges on policy: RFS, biodiesel/renewable diesel, and SAF tax credits will decide soy oil crush, corn demand, and rents.
  • Strategy reality: Diversified ops with cattle are weathering this better than row‑crop‑only farms.

Progressive Farmer

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/home

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

About the Author
National Land Realty specializes in farm, ranch, recreational, timber, country estates, and commercial development properties. We’ve created the world’s best way to buy, sell, lease, and experience land. One seamless hub of knowledge, unprecedented data, and game-changing technology— accessible from anywhere. Our agents offer local expertise, with the support of a national network.

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