While the USDA has reported moderate stability and slight growth in the average price per acre of farmland across the country, the realities for many local farmland markets show a different story. Pricing in 2025 is being set by hyper-local factors like crop mix, operator depth, lender posture, and especially water reliability, so neighboring counties can clear at very different numbers. Regionally, many Midwest grain counties have cooled, the Southeast still shows pockets of upward pressure, and Western outcomes hinge on water access.

During a recent episode of the National Land Podcast, Chief Economist for Farmer Mac Jackson Takach appeared for a discussion on current farmland values around the country, as well as the factors that ag producers and farmland owners should be aware of as we move into the end of 2025. 

Here’s what to know about the current farmland market!

What’s Actually Moving Prices County-to-County?

The gap between state or national averages and what clears locally is widening. Once you zoom to the county level, the market stops looking stable because adjacent tracts can command very different numbers based on water, drainage, soils, tenant quality, and access. Across the country, ag properties with water rights and irrigation systems already in-place are fetching a premium, and likely will continue to do so for some time. 

A second driver is deal flow: appraisers no longer get the easy tailwind of “next sale clears higher.” The X-factor now is supply; if listings stay scarce, stability holds, but a wave of estate or stress-driven sales could overwhelm demand and change comps quickly.

Regionally, the pattern lines up with what operators feel in their margins and water: slowing through the Corn Belt, pockets of strength in the Southeast, and a split West where water access divides successful operations from struggling ones.

What Should Sellers, Buyers, and Lenders Know in 2025?

Sellers should price the tract they have, not a statewide “average,” and anchor negotiations to recent, county-relevant transactions plus verifiable attributes (yields/soils, water rights and reliability, drainage/tiling, lease clarity). In thin farmland markets, one estate sale can distort expectations until a fresh comp resets the bar; clean data shortens diligence and keeps real buyers engaged. 

Buyers should shop the local market one county over and focus on attributes before acres: dependable water, drainage, soil productivity, access, and transferable improvements tend to drive long-run ROI. Lenders and appraisers should expect more reconciliation work across fewer true “next-door” comps, weigh agronomic and water data heavily, and be cautious about letting a single outlier sale dictate their valuations.

Outlook & Indicators to Watch (and How to Read Them)

Keep an eye on listing volume and local basis/input costs to gauge operator bid power; if supply rises meaningfully, the market will likely reprice in select counties. Bankruptcies are another trend to keep an eye on. Chapter 12 filings have “doubled,” but from unusually low levels, landing near historical averages; recent upticks are concentrated in Arkansas (soy/rice/cotton plus weather and China demand) and Nebraska (feedlot squeeze alongside grain pressure).

In 2025, value is dictated by county-level supply and water-anchored attributes, so buyers and sellers alike would be wise to keep an eye on their local markets as we wrap up 2025 and move into the new year.

If you’ve got questions about the farmland market in your area, get in touch with your local Land Professional today!