{"id":11062,"date":"2025-10-29T12:22:46","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T16:22:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalland.com\/blog\/?p=11062"},"modified":"2025-10-29T12:23:37","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T16:23:37","slug":"a-look-at-tariffs-and-current-crop-values","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalland.com\/blog\/a-look-at-tariffs-and-current-crop-values\/","title":{"rendered":"A Look at Tariffs and Current Crop Values"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With harvest in full swing around the country, many American farmers are concerned about current crop values and how international trade negotiations may be impacting their bottom lines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

During a recent episode of the National Land Podcast<\/a>, Dr. Gary Schnitkey with the University of Illinois summed up where we are: \u201cRight now\u2026 cash prices for corn and soybeans, they\u2019re below $4 for corn and below $10 for soybeans\u2026 the tariffs are\u2026 not good\u201d for both inputs and exports, especially soybeans to China, which has yet to make a purchase this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s take a look at some of the factors influencing crop prices in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Changed?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One of the major factors this year is international trade disagreements, specifically between the United States and China. When trade partners retaliate against policies like tariffs, the sectors that produce exports like corn and soybean production, as well as livestock, take the hit. The result is a return to \u201c$4 corn and $10 soybeans,\u201d a level that won\u2019t allow many farmers to reach their break-even point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs don\u2019t just add fees; they reroute trade and add friction. Even if the U.S. finds alternate buyers, according to Schnitkey, \u201cthe original distribution of sales worked\u2026 and it\u2019s going to cost more to redistribute\u2026 than\u2026 without tariffs.\u201d Schnitkey argues that tariffs overall harm exporters, and products like corn and soy get hurt in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other Nations Filling the Gap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As a result of the United States\u2019 trade policies, other countries are stepping in to meet international demand. According to Schnitkey, \u201cOur major competitor in soybeans is Brazil, and Brazil now produces more soybeans than the United States\u2026 the tariff situation makes Brazil look more attractive to buy from,\u201d accelerating growth there and creating a long-term overhang on U.S. prices. Schnitkey goes on to state that even if the trade war ended \u201ctoday,\u201d it wouldn\u2019t erase the \u201cseeds of doubt\u201d; Brazil would have grown anyway, but \u201cwe\u2019ve sped it up considerably.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schnitkey\u2019s team figures break-even at roughly $4.50 corn and $11\u2013$11.50 soybeans, so with current prices near $4 and $10, we\u2019re below those breakeven levels and there\u2019s no quick cost relief in sight. What\u2019s bridging the gap is government support: for the 2024 crop, an aid package served as a stopgap measure to keep farmers from bankruptcy. Many are hopeful that a new aid package could provide relief for this year\u2019s farmers, but the ongoing government shutdown<\/a> certainly creates concerns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Landowners and Operators Can Do Now<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With margins thin, start by tightening the cost stack. Scrutinize inputs with the highest ROI sensitivity and revisit machinery economics; keep in mind that new-equipment costs remain higher than in 2021\u201323. On rents and land values, temper expectations for sharp moves. As long as federal payments are sizable, adjustments are likely to be sideways rather than dramatic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under tariffs, the Midwest is selling into a world that\u2019s both l<\/strong>ess eager to buy U.S. soy and more able to supply itself. That\u2019s why many, including Schnitkey, believe these values aren\u2019t a one-week blip, but rather the result of reshuffled trade routes, sticky costs, and a stronger competitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have questions about how today\u2019s crop values could affect your land investment, get in touch with your local Land Professional<\/a> today! <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With harvest in full swing around the country, many American farmers are concerned about current crop values and how international trade negotiations may be impacting their bottom lines.  During a recent episode of the National Land Podcast, Dr. Gary Schnitkey with the University of Illinois summed up where we are: \u201cRight now\u2026 cash prices for … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “A Look at Tariffs and Current Crop Values”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":11064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[117,13],"tags":[1948,1947,1946,232,1942,395,1754],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nA Look at Tariffs and Current Crop Values - National Land Realty News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tariffs and current crop values are causing concern among many of America's farmland owners. 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