{"id":11051,"date":"2025-10-20T17:38:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T21:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalland.com\/blog\/?p=11051"},"modified":"2025-10-24T16:35:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T20:35:00","slug":"tariffs-china-and-brazils-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalland.com\/blog\/tariffs-china-and-brazils-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariffs, China, and Brazil\u2019s Soy Surge: The Math No One Likes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" height=\"150\" width=\"640\" style=\"border: none\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=1&amp;btn-skin=7&amp;multiple_size=600&amp;square_size=300&amp;order=episodic&amp;filter=all&amp;limit=600&amp;season=all&amp;tag=all&amp;i=6enir-199919c-pb\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The Midwest row\u2011crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break\u2011evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what\u2019s driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect.<\/p>\n<p>What we cover<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tariffs &amp; trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far this season; China is favoring Brazil\u2014and financing its export infrastructure. Result: lower U.S. prices now and a tougher long\u2011run soybean outlook.<\/li>\n<li>Cost structure: Seed\/fertilizer stayed high; machinery costs jumped ~25% (2021\u20132023). Million\u2011dollar combines and pricier parts make scale (or equipment sharing) more critical.<\/li>\n<li>Break\u2011even reality: ~$4.50 corn \/ ~$11.50 soybeans vs. ~$4\/$10 cash\u2014why margins are negative without aid.<\/li>\n<li>Government payments: 2024 ad\u2011hoc aid (~$10B nationally; ~$37\/acre in IL) kept incomes from going red; 2025 budgets assume ~$65\/acre commodity title payments plus another ECAP\u2011style package. Policy support is holding up cash rents and land values.<\/li>\n<li>Farmland values &amp; rents: Off the peak and largely flat. If payments fade, expect downward pressure; a gradual ~20% decline over time isn\u2019t off the table if current conditions persist.<\/li>\n<li>Crop switching &amp; regen: Few viable pivots in the Corn\/Soy Belt. Lower prices slow regenerative adoption (transition takes time and can ding yield early). Great Plains likely adjust first.<\/li>\n<li>Livestock: Bright spot\u2014cattle margins remain strong.<\/li>\n<li>Outlook: Barring a major shock (e.g., Brazil\/US drought), expect $4 corn \/ $10 soybeans to stick. In the meantime, the sector is effectively \u201cgoing to Washington.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Guest: Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Agricultural &amp; Consumer Economics, University of Illinois; works with FBFM (Farm Business Farm Management) and Precision Conservation Management (PCM) datasets.<\/p>\n<p>Read about Dr. Gary Schnitkey<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/asc.illinois.edu\/directory\/gary-schnitkey\/\">https:\/\/asc.illinois.edu\/directory\/gary-schnitkey\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>National Land Realty<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalland.com\">https:\/\/www.nationalland.com<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Midwest row\u2011crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break\u2011evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what\u2019s driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect. What we cover Tariffs &amp; trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalland.com\/blog\/tariffs-china-and-brazils-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Tariffs, China, and Brazil\u2019s Soy Surge: The Math No One Likes&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[1217],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.7.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Tariffs, China, and Brazil\u2019s Soy Surge: The Math No One Likes - National Land Realty News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn all about tariffs and the ongoing international trade developments in this podcast featuring Dr. Gary Schnitkey!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nationalland.com\/blog\/tariffs-china-and-brazils-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tariffs, China, and Brazil\u2019s Soy Surge: The Math No One Likes - 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